
I sign my monthly letter: "Wishing you health above wealth, wisdom
beyond knowledge" In my view health is priceless and Dr. Dorn
provides the wisdom, experience, training and knowledge which you
can use in a practical manner to grow and keep wealth, be it
financial, emotional or physical. What Dr. Dorn provides is what
each of us desires to have...
Sincerely, David Morgan
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Great
Work, Janice! Sending you virtual roses! I will share
your wisdom with my children, friends and everyone who
wants to master the markets through mastering
themselves...
Larry Williams
(founder of Williams % R). |
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Dear Dr. Dorn, Thank you for helping me turn myself
around. Everything has gotten better since I started
coaching with you.
I make my quota from trading almost every day. I
have dropped 35 pounds, reduced my insulin
requirement and am now working out five days a week.
My wife and I do not have words to express how
deeply you have changed our lives...
Mark M,British Columbia
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BIG
ROLLOVER BREAKING NEWS
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Morgan
Stanley
predicts
one in
ten
homeowners
'facing
negative
equity'
http://tinyurl.com/3vp6o7
April 18
2008
From The
Times
House
prices
will
fall by
15 per
cent in
the next
two
years,
pushing
one in
ten
homeowners
into
negative
equity,
a
leading
investment
bank has
forecast.
Morgan
Stanley
predicts
that 1.2
million
people
will be
in
negative
equity,
owing
more
money on
their
mortgage
than
their
home is
worth -
levels
not seen
since
the
housing
market
crash in
the
early
1990s.
Those
affected
cannot
move
house
easily
unless
they
raise
finance
elsewhere
to pay
off
their
home
loan.
They
must
either
stay put
and pay
their
mortgage
bills,
or sell
at a
loss.
Many
first-time
buyers
will be
particularly
badly
affected.
Five per
cent
took out
a loan
of 100
per cent
or more
of the
purchase
price of
a
property
last
year.
Morgan
Stanley
also
suggests
that if
house
prices
fall by
25 per
cent
over the
next two
years,
more
than two
million
- or a
quarter
of all
borrowers
- would
be in
negative
equity.
The
report's
authors,
including
David
Miles,
who has
written
a
Treasury-backed
report
on
mortgages,
even
gave
warning
that
their
figures
may be
too
conservative
as they
did not
include
mortgages
taken
out this
year.
But
Professor
Miles
said
that
only a
minority
of
people
would be
in
severe
difficulties.
He told
The
Times:
"If we
did see
this
scenario
materialise
it
would
mean
that
average
house
prices
were
back to
where
they
were at
the
start of
2006.
And
although
it might
generate
a
substantial
number
of
people
with a
mortgage
larger
than the
value of
their
house,
the
great
majority
of them
would
have a
small
amount
of
negative
equity."
There
are
fears
that a
combination
of
falling
house
prices
and
spiralling
mortgage
bills
could
cause a
further
rise in
repossessions.
The
Council
of
Mortgage
Lenders
has
already
predicted
that
home
repossessions
will
rise by
50 per
cent to
45,000
this
year.
The
price of
an
average
property
fell by
2.5 per
cent, or
nearly
£5,000,
in
March.
Annual
house
price
growth
has
slowed
to its
lowest
level
for 12
years.
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Airplane
Stolen
At
Gunpoint
In
Mexico
April 17
2008—Airjacking!
A pilot
and his
family
were in
their
Cessna
Stationair
on
Tuesday,
preparing
to take
off from
a dirt
runway
in Baja
California,
when
they
were
forced
at
gunpoint
to
abandon
the
airplane,
Bob
Collins,
president
of the
Aircraft
Crime
Prevention
Institute,
told
AVweb.
"Three
men
jumped
the
fence,
then
three
others
in a
Nissan
Sentra
pulled
onto the
runway,
blocking
it,"
Collins
said.
"One of
them had
a gun,
and they
broke a
window
in the
airplane
and
forced
the
family
out.
They
pushed
the
Sentra
off to
the side
and
torched
it, then
all six
of them
climbed
into the
airplane.
There
was
baggage
in there
too, and
it
barely
made it
into the
air,"
Collins
said.
ACPI had
issued
an alert
recently
that
aircraft
thefts
are
rising
in the
border
region.
"Mexican
officials
are
seizing
aircraft,
so
smugglers
are out
looking
for new
ones,"
he said.
They
prefer
U.S.
airplanes,
he
added,
because
they
tend to
be
better-maintained
and
newer
than
local
aircraft.
The
pilot
and his
family
were not
hurt,
Collins
said.
The
Mulege
Airstrip
is a
general
aviation
dirt
airstrip
that is
located
two
miles
northeast
of
Mulege,
near the
Hotel
Serenidad
in the
northern
part of
Baja
California
Sur.
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Man in the
News: Paul
Volcker
By Chrystia
Freeland
Published:
April 11
2008 19:36 |
Last
updated:
April 11
2008 22:42
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f5068da-07f3-11dd-a922-0000779fd2ac.html
Paul Volcker
"had harsh
words for
private
sector
bankers,
whose
compensation
practices
were 'most
invidious of
all' in the
loosening of
the nation's
financial
discipline:
'the mantra
of aligning
incentives
seems to be
lost in the
failure to
impose
symmetrical
losses – or
frequently
any loss at
all – when
failures
ensue'. He
cautioned
that 'it is
the United
States as a
whole that
became
addicted to
spending and
consuming
beyond its
capacity to
produce'.
Foreign
money and
homegrown
'financial
legerdemain'
disguised
the problem
for a while,
but the man
who
administered
the most
bitter
monetary
medicine the
country has
swallowed
since the
second world
war warned
that it is
again time
for 'painful
but
necessary
adjustments'".
"Perhaps
most
pointedly,
Mr Volcker
asked why
government-sponsored
lenders such
as Fannie
Mae and
Freddie Mac
were not
doing more
to restore
confidence
in the
mortgage
market. And
he reminded
his
listeners
that the
Fed's main
job is not
to 'take
many
billions of
uncertain
assets on to
its balance
sheets', but
rather, as
'custodian
of the
nation's
money', to
'protect its
value and
resist
chronic
pressures
towards
inflation'".
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Retailing
Chains Caught in
a Wave of
Bankruptcies
April 15, 2008
By MICHAEL
BARBARO
========================================
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/business/15retail.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=business&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
========================================
The consumer
spending slump
and tightening
credit markets
are unleashing a
widening wave of
bankruptcies in
American
retailing,
prompting
thousands of
store closings
that are
expected to
remake suburban
malls and
downtown
shopping
districts across
the country.
Since last fall,
eight mostly
midsize chains -
as diverse as
the furniture
store Levitz and
the electronics
seller Sharper
Image - have
filed for
bankruptcy
protection as
they staggered
under mounting
debt and
declining sales.
But the troubles
are quickly
spreading to
bigger national
companies, like
Linens 'n
Things, the
bedding and
furniture
retailer with
500 stores in 47
states. It may
file for
bankruptcy as
early as this
week, according
to people
briefed on the
matter.
Even retailers
that can avoid
bankruptcy are
shutting down
stores to
preserve cash
through what
could be a long
economic
downturn. Over
the next year,
Foot Locker said
it would close
140 stores, Ann
Taylor will
start to shutter
117 and the
jeweler Zales
will close 100.
The surging cost
of necessities
has led to a
national
belt-tightening
among consumers.
Figures released
on Monday showed
that spending on
food and
gasoline is
crowding out
other purchases,
leaving people
with less to
spend on
furniture,
clothing and
electronics.
Consequently,
chains
specializing in
those goods are
proving
vulnerable.
Retailing is a
business with
big ups and
downs during the
year, and
retailers rely
heavily on
borrowed money
to finance their
purchases of
merchandise and
even to meet
payrolls during
slow periods.
Yet the nation's
banks,
struggling with
the growing
mortgage crisis,
have started to
balk at
extending new
loans,
effectively
cutting up the
retail
industry's
collective
credit cards.
"You have the
makings of a
wave of
significant
bankruptcies,"
said Al Koch,
who helped bring
Kmart out of
bankruptcy in
2003 as the
company's
interim chief
financial
officer and
works at a
corporate
turnaround firm
called
AlixPartners.
"For years, no
deal was too
ugly to
finance," he
said. "But now,
nobody will
throw money at
these
companies."
Because
retailers rely
on a broad
network of
suppliers, their
bankruptcies are
rippling across
the economy. The
cash-short
chains are
leaving behind
tens of millions
of dollars in
unpaid bills to
shipping
companies,
furniture
manufacturers,
mall owners and
advertising
agencies. Many
are unlikely to
be paid in full,
spreading the
economic pain.
When it filed
for bankruptcy,
Sharper Image
owed $6.6
million to
United Parcel
Service. The
furniture chain
Levitz owed
Sealy $1.4
million.
And it is not
just large
companies that
are absorbing
the losses. When
Domain, the
furniture
retailer, filed
for bankruptcy,
it owed On Time
Express, a
90-employee
transportation
and logistics
company in
Tempe, Ariz.,
about $30,000.
"We'll be lucky
to see pennies
on the dollar,
if we see
anything,"
said Ross Musil,
the chief
financial
officer of On
Time Express.
"It's a big
loss."
Most of the
ailing companies
have filed for
reorganization,
not liquidation,
under the
bankruptcy laws,
including the
furniture chain
Wickes, the
housewares
seller Fortunoff,
Harvey
Electronics and
the catalog
retailer Lillian
Vernon. But, in
a contrast with
previous
recessions, many
are unlikely to
emerge from
bankruptcy,
lawyers and
industry experts
said.
Changes in the
federal
bankruptcy code
in 2005
significantly
tightened
deadlines for
ailing companies
to restructure
their
businesses,
offering them
less leeway.
And the changes
may force
companies to pay
suppliers before
paying wages or
honoring
obligations to
customers, like
redeeming gift
cards, said
Sally Henry, a
partner in the
bankruptcy law
practice at
Skadden, Arps,
Slate, Meagher &
Flom and the
author of
several books on
bankruptcy.
As a result, she
said, "it's no
longer
reorganization
or even
liquidation for
these companies.
In many cases,
it's
evaporation."
Several of the
retailers that
filed for
Chapter 11
bankruptcy
protection over
the last eight
months, like the
furniture
sellers Bombay,
Levitz and
Domain, have
begun to wind
down - closing
stores, laying
off workers and
liquidating
merchandise.
In most cases,
the collapses
stemmed from a
combination of
factors:
flawed business
strategies, a
souring economy
and banks'
unwillingness to
issue cheap
loans.
Bombay, a chain
with 360 stores,
was considered a
success in the
furniture world,
after its sales
surged from $393
million in 1999
to
$596 million in
2003.
Then the chain
decided to move
most of its
stores out of
enclosed malls
into open-air
shopping
centers. It
started a
children's
furniture
business, called
BombayKids. And
it started
carrying bigger
items, like beds
and upholstered
couches, with
higher prices
than its regular
furniture.
Consumers balked
at the changes,
hurting Bombay's
sales and
profits at the
same time that
its expenses for
the ambitious
new strategies
began to grow.
The timing was
unenviable: By
early 2007, the
housing market
began to falter,
so purchases of
furniture slowed
to a trickle.
The company was
running out of
money, but banks
refused to lend
more.
"They did not
want to take the
chance that we
might not repay
the loans,"
Elaine D.
Crowley, the
chief financial
officer, said in
an interview.
In September
2007, Bombay
filed for
bankruptcy
protection. The
highest bid for
the company came
from liquidation
firms, who
quickly
dismembered the
33-year-old
chain. Bombay,
which once
employed 3,608,
now has 20
employees left.
"It is very
difficult and
sad," Ms.
Crowley said.
The bankruptcies
are putting a
spotlight on a
little-discussed
facet of
retailing: heavy
debt.
Stores may
appear to mint
money by paying
$2 for a T-shirt
and charging $10
for it. But
because shopping
is based on
weather patterns
and fashion
trends,
retailers must
pay for
merchandise that
may sit, unsold,
on shelves for
long periods.
So chains
regularly borrow
large sums to
cover routine
expenses, like
wages and
electricity
bills. When
sales are
strong, as they
typically are
during the
holiday season,
the debts are
repaid.
Fortunoff, a
jewelry and home
furnishing chain
in the
Northeast,
relied on $90
million in loans
to help operate
its 23 stores,
using
merchandise as
collateral.
But by early
2008, as the
housing market
struggled, the
chain's profits
dropped, meaning
its collateral
was losing value
and the amount
it could borrow
fell.
In better
economic times,
the banks might
have granted
Fortunoff a
reprieve. But
with a recession
looming, they
refused, forcing
it to file for
bankruptcy in
February. In
filings, the
chain said it
was "facing a
liquidity
crisis." (Fortunoff
was later sold
to the owner of
Lord & Taylor.)
Plenty of
retailers remain
on strong
footing. Arnold
H. Aronson, the
former chief
executive of
Saks Fifth
Avenue and a
managing
director at Kurt
Salmon
Associates, a
retail
consulting firm,
said the credit
tightness and
consumer
spending
slowdown have
only wiped out
the "bottom
tier" companies
in retailing.
"This recession
dealt the final
blow to these
chains," he
said. But
several big-name
chains are
looking
vulnerable.
Linens 'n
Things, which is
owned by Apollo
Management, a
private equity
firm, is
considering a
bankruptcy
filing after
years of poor
performance and
mounting debts,
though it has
additional
options, people
involved in the
discussions said
Monday.
Whether more
chains file for
bankruptcy or
not, it will be
hard to miss the
impact of the
industry's
troubles in the
nation's malls.
J. C. Penney,
Lowe's and
Office Depot are
scaling back or
delaying
expansion.
Office Depot had
planned to open
150 stores this
year; now it
will open 75.
The
International
Council of
Shopping
Centers, a trade
group, estimates
there will be
5,770 store
closings in
2008, up 25
percent from
2007, when there
were 4,603.
Charming Shoppes,
which owns the
women's clothing
retailers Lane
Bryant and
Fashion Bug, is
closing at least
150 stores.
Wilsons the
Leather Experts
will close 158.
And Pacific
Sunwear is
shutting a
153-store chain
called Demo.
Those decisions
were made months
ago, when it was
unclear how long
the downturn in
consumer
spending might
last. If March
was any
indication, it
is nowhere near
over. Sales at
stores open at
least a year
fell 0.5
percent, the
worst
performance in
13 years,
according to the
shopping
council.
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